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Nomura Securities: Semiconductor is worried about oversupply

In Nomura's report on the 6th, it was pointed out that the semiconductor industry has been experiencing price increases for 18 consecutive months, and the rising cycle will "peak" in the first half of this year. With the continuous expansion of production capacity, the supply chain risk continues to increase. In addition to the impact of inflation, it is estimated that chip prices will be revised at the end of the second quarter. Nomura believes that as the semiconductor cycle in 2022 will reach its peak in the first half of the year, the bright financial statements of semiconductor companies cannot push up the share price to a new high, but they can still help the stock that had fallen sharply rebound; At present, the macro environment has deteriorated, including the prospect of interest rates of the Federal Reserve of the United States (Fed) has turned into a hawk, and the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian war has increased inflation risks. Future orders may face a wave of correction, so we are cautious about semiconductor stocks. Nomura pointed out that it is still impossible to determine whether the price of semiconductors can decline moderately after reaching the peak in the first half of the cycle. At present, the known influencing factors include inflation, which may affect the "hard landing" of prices. Nomura estimated that the adjustment period of chip orders will continue to lengthen, which will take several quarters, while supply is still a problem. With the war between Russia and Ukraine, the earthquake, China's closure of cities, etc., the semiconductor supply chain may deteriorate. Therefore, the possibility of "exceeding expectations" in April and May cannot be ruled out. Nomura said that although the trend of chip price increase will slow down in the first half of the year, there is no indicator of the scale of price decline in the next 18 months. Therefore, in 2023, it prefers companies with good visibility, such as TSMC, server IC, analog IC, etc., mainly benefiting from the strong new product cycle and the increase of market share. As for equipment suppliers, Nomura pointed out that the supply of semiconductor equipment is still in shortage at this stage, because it is also faced with the problem of chip shortage. However, considering the green space capacity expansion in the two years starting from the beginning of 2021, it is estimated that the supply will expand in 2023, and the slowing down of supply growth can also ease the concerns about oversupply in the second half of 2022 and 2023.

2022

CFO of Volkswagen: insufficient chip supply will last until 2024

According to Reuters, Arno Antlitz, Volkswagen's chief financial officer (CFO), said in an interview with German daily Boersen Zeitung on Saturday that the supply of semiconductor chips is unlikely to fully meet demand again before 2024. He said that although the bottleneck may begin to ease at the end of this year and the output will return to the level of 2019 next year, it is not enough to meet the growing demand for chips. "The structural supply shortage may not solve itself until 2024," Antlitz said. Antlitz said that the lack of harnesses in Ukraine also led to the loss of some components, although the company is establishing new supplier relationships to purchase components from other countries. When asked how the funds from Porsche's public offering planned for the end of this year would be used to support Volkswagen's finance, Antlitz said that the funds would help fund the software department of the automobile manufacturer and its battery production plan. "Only those who can map out their battery supply chain can have an advantage in the scale of electric vehicles. Protection of the supply chain follows. Porsche's public offering allows us to have greater flexibility in financing," Antlitz said.

2022

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Chuangkai Intelligent Equipment (Wuxi) Co., Ltd

We focus on the R&D and manufacturing of high-precision semiconductor equipment and provide overall solutions for semiconductor packaging process.

Tel : 0510-82391833 / 82391803

E-mail : cec@wxcec.com

Address : 35-107 Changjiang South Road, Xinwu District, Wuxi City

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