NEWS

PROVIDE OVERALL SOLUTION FOR SEMICONDUCTOR PACKAGING PROCESS

MCU and PMIC bear the brunt of further extension of chip delivery date

According to the research of Susquehanna Financial Group, the delivery time -- the delay between chip ordering and delivery -- increased by two days last month to 26.6 weeks. Although chip users face longer waiting time again, the growth rate of delivery time is much slower than that in 2021, when many industries were forced to reduce production due to the lack of key components. According to a report by Susquehanna analyst Chris Rolland, the lead time for most chip types has increased, including power management, microcontrollers, analog and memory. He said that the war in Ukraine, the Covid-19 blockade in some parts of China and the earthquake in Japan "will have a short-term impact in the first quarter, but may have a lingering impact on the severely restricted supply chain throughout the year". The global semiconductor shortage began in the first half of 2020, driven by the epidemic driven consumer technology and automobile demand. Semiconductor manufacturers reduced their investment in increasing factory output, and the sudden shortage of chips disrupted the production of all products from smartphones to pickup trucks. It also contributes to inflation by raising supply costs. Chip industry executives warn that some customers will find it difficult to obtain adequate supply until 2023. Intel and other companies have increased the construction of new factories on a large scale, most of which will not be put into production until next year.

25

2022

/

07

Nomura Securities: Semiconductor is worried about oversupply

In Nomura's report on the 6th, it was pointed out that the semiconductor industry has been experiencing price increases for 18 consecutive months, and the rising cycle will "peak" in the first half of this year. With the continuous expansion of production capacity, the supply chain risk continues to increase. In addition to the impact of inflation, it is estimated that chip prices will be revised at the end of the second quarter. Nomura believes that as the semiconductor cycle in 2022 will reach its peak in the first half of the year, the bright financial statements of semiconductor companies cannot push up the share price to a new high, but they can still help the stock that had fallen sharply rebound; At present, the macro environment has deteriorated, including the prospect of interest rates of the Federal Reserve of the United States (Fed) has turned into a hawk, and the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian war has increased inflation risks. Future orders may face a wave of correction, so we are cautious about semiconductor stocks. Nomura pointed out that it is still impossible to determine whether the price of semiconductors can decline moderately after reaching the peak in the first half of the cycle. At present, the known influencing factors include inflation, which may affect the "hard landing" of prices. Nomura estimated that the adjustment period of chip orders will continue to lengthen, which will take several quarters, while supply is still a problem. With the war between Russia and Ukraine, the earthquake, China's closure of cities, etc., the semiconductor supply chain may deteriorate. Therefore, the possibility of "exceeding expectations" in April and May cannot be ruled out. Nomura said that although the trend of chip price increase will slow down in the first half of the year, there is no indicator of the scale of price decline in the next 18 months. Therefore, in 2023, it prefers companies with good visibility, such as TSMC, server IC, analog IC, etc., mainly benefiting from the strong new product cycle and the increase of market share. As for equipment suppliers, Nomura pointed out that the supply of semiconductor equipment is still in shortage at this stage, because it is also faced with the problem of chip shortage. However, considering the green space capacity expansion in the two years starting from the beginning of 2021, it is estimated that the supply will expand in 2023, and the slowing down of supply growth can also ease the concerns about oversupply in the second half of 2022 and 2023.

25

2022

/

07

< 12 >